Nigeria’s government has reportedly been observing a secret ceasefire with Boko Haram for the past three months, marking a rare pause in a conflict that has devastated the country’s northeast for more than 15 years.
The reported agreement came into effect in June following negotiations that secured the release of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe, a community near the Mandara Mountains along Nigeria’s border with Cameroon.
According to an investigation by The New Humanitarian, three people with contacts among Boko Haram members, including senior figures, said the truce had remained in place since June and could be extended for a further 40 days.
Two sources also said attacks had stopped in communities around Ngoshe, an area that has repeatedly faced raids by the armed group.
Mass abduction preceded reported deal
The 360 civilians were abducted in March when Boko Haram fighters attacked an army position near Ngoshe.
Their release followed negotiations between intermediaries and the armed group, with reports alleging that the Nigerian government paid five billion naira — approximately $3.7 million — as part of the arrangement. Abuja has denied paying a ransom.
The reported ceasefire does not extend to Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Boko Haram’s rival in northeastern Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad region.
Fighting between Boko Haram and ISWAP has continued despite the reported pause in hostilities between Boko Haram and government forces.
The existence of any formal ceasefire has also not been publicly acknowledged by the Nigerian government.
Dialogue despite public military strategy
Successive Nigerian governments have publicly emphasised military operations as their primary response to Boko Haram and other armed groups operating across the country.
President Bola Tinubu has continued expanding Nigeria’s military capacity, approving four additional army divisions in July and the recruitment of 28,000 additional personnel. The restructuring increases the Nigerian Army from eight to 12 divisions.
The expansion forms part of a wider effort by the government to respond to multiple security crises, including the insurgency in the northeast, armed groups and kidnappings in the northwest, communal violence and other security threats.
However, previous Nigerian administrations have also pursued negotiations and prisoner exchanges with Boko Haram behind the scenes, particularly in efforts to secure the release of abducted civilians.
Several attempts at ceasefires or dialogue have ultimately broken down.
The latest reported arrangement therefore raises questions over whether Abuja is reconsidering the possibility of negotiations alongside its military campaign, or whether the ceasefire is simply a temporary agreement limited to a specific area.
Conflict researcher Malik Samuel cautioned against interpreting the reported truce as the beginning of a broader peace process, describing it as potentially a tactical arrangement that temporarily benefits both sides without fundamentally changing the direction of the conflict.
There are also concerns that Boko Haram could use any pause in military pressure to regroup, reposition fighters or move supplies into areas around the Mandara Mountains.
More than 15 years of conflict
Boko Haram’s insurgency erupted in northeastern Nigeria in 2009 and subsequently spread into neighbouring Cameroon, Chad and Niger.
The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions across the Lake Chad region.
The movement later fractured, most significantly following the emergence of ISWAP, which became affiliated with ISIS and developed into a powerful rival to Boko Haram.
The two groups have fought each other for territory, fighters and influence while continuing attacks against security forces and civilians.
If the reported ceasefire between Abuja and Boko Haram continues, it would represent an unusual period of reduced hostilities in one of the regions most severely affected by the insurgency.
Whether it develops into a broader dialogue, however, remains unclear — particularly while ISWAP remains outside the arrangement and fighting between rival armed groups continues across northeastern Nigeria.
