The Sahel emerges as a new battleground for influence between Washington and Moscow

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The visit by Frank Garcia, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, to Bamako went beyond the scope of a routine diplomatic mission. It came as Washington seeks to rebuild dialogue with Mali’s authorities after several years of strained relations.

The visit took place less than a month after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov travelled to neighbouring Niger for talks involving officials from Mali and other Sahel states.

The close timing of the two diplomatic engagements highlights the growing competition for influence between the United States and Russia in the Sahel, a region that has become an increasingly important strategic arena.

It also comes amid the growing threat posed by insurgent groups operating across the region.

Since 2025, Washington has stepped up efforts to improve relations with Bamako. Successive visits by Rudy Atallah, William Stevens, Nick Cheke and Frank Garcia reflect a desire to regain a foothold in a country now regarded as one of Moscow’s key African partners.

During his visit, Garcia held talks with Malian authorities on investment, emerging technologies, mining and security cooperation.

The engagement forms part of Washington’s “America First in Africa” strategy, which places greater emphasis on private investment, economic partnerships and security cooperation aligned with African priorities.

Is the US seeking a military presence in Mali?

There is currently no official evidence that Washington intends to establish a permanent military base in Mali.

However, some Malian observers believe the United States could adopt an approach similar to its cooperation model with Nigeria.

Rather than relying on large-scale troop deployments, such a strategy could focus on intelligence sharing, aerial and satellite surveillance, technical assistance and support for national forces fighting armed groups.

This possibility comes as Malian authorities have announced rewards for information leading to the location of Iyad Ag Ghali, leader of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), and several other senior figures within the organisation.

Some analysts believe Washington may see this as an opportunity to deepen counter-insurgency cooperation with Bamako while avoiding a direct military presence.

The battle for resources

Security concerns explain only part of the renewed American interest in the Sahel.

Mali possesses significant mineral wealth, particularly gold and lithium. Lithium has become increasingly strategic to the global energy transition and the production of modern technologies.

As competition between major powers intensifies, access to critical minerals has become an important economic and geopolitical priority.

Mali’s geographical position at the heart of the Sahel also increases its strategic value for monitoring armed groups operating across the wider region.

Mbassa Thioune, Director of Studies at the Timbuktu Institute, described the Sahel as “one of the most important theatres of competition between foreign powers” because of its geographical position, natural resources and economic potential.

Two competing security strategies

Russia and the United States are advancing different approaches to expanding their influence in the Sahel.

Moscow favours a more direct security presence through military partnerships, particularly through Africa Corps, with a focus on operational support, strengthening military capabilities and securing strategic sectors.

Washington, meanwhile, has adopted a more indirect approach centred on economic diplomacy, investment, intelligence cooperation, specialised training and institutional partnerships.

The renewed US engagement is also being closely watched in Russia.

Russian activist and commentator on African affairs Antoine II said the latest American diplomatic outreach carried significant geopolitical weight.

“This visit confirms one thing: Washington is keeping a close eye on the Sahel, whatever the cost,” he said.

Russia may view closer cooperation between Bamako and Washington with caution, without necessarily opposing it, provided such engagement respects Mali’s sovereignty and remains focused on intelligence sharing and counter-insurgency cooperation.

However, Moscow could react negatively if it believes the United States is seeking to weaken Russian influence in Mali or challenge its existing security partnerships.

For Bamako, the challenge will be to diversify its international partnerships without allowing Mali to become an arena for confrontation between competing global powers.

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