Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, the continuing war in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan’s widening regional impact are testing the African Union’s ability to turn diplomacy into lasting peace.
The AU is engaged across the continent’s major conflicts. Its harder task is ensuring that agreements hold after the negotiations end.
Eastern DRC shows the scale of that challenge. Fighting between Congolese forces and the AFC/M23 insurgency continues amid deep tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali. Ceasefire diplomacy has drawn in the AU and other international partners, but a durable settlement will have to address the political and security disputes beneath the fighting.
In Ethiopia, the AU helped broker the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the main phase of the Tigray war. Renewed clashes this week have raised fears that the accord is unravelling. Tigrayan forces have taken control of airports in the region, while Ethiopian officials accuse them of attacking federal positions in neighbouring Afar and Amhara.
The escalation exposes the cost of leaving parts of a peace agreement unresolved. Disarmament, contested territories and political dialogue remain central to whether Pretoria can deliver lasting stability.
Sudan presents another challenge. Its war has displaced millions and drawn in networks operating across borders. A UN fact-finding mission reported this month that foreign weapons, personnel and logistical support are helping sustain the conflict.
These crises differ in their causes and the parties involved. What they share is a demand for sustained regional diplomacy at a time when neighbouring states often have competing interests.
What the AU has proposed
At an extraordinary summit in Luanda on 30 August, AU leaders examined how to strengthen the continent’s conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms. AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf called for urgent reform of its peace and security architecture.
The AU has mediation channels, early warning systems and partnerships with regional organisations. The question is how quickly those mechanisms can respond to a worsening crisis, and how much influence they retain once an agreement has been signed.
Funding is one obstacle. Peace operations need reliable resources to deploy and remain in place. Implementation is another: AU decisions depend heavily on member states whose interests may diverge. Rival diplomatic initiatives can further weaken a common approach.
The test is whether peace holds
In Ethiopia, the immediate priority is to prevent the renewed fighting from becoming another full-scale war while addressing the unfinished provisions of Pretoria. In eastern DRC, ceasefire efforts need to lead towards a settlement that confronts the tensions between Congo and Rwanda. In Sudan, diplomacy must contend with the outside support helping to prolong the war.
The AU cannot resolve every conflict alone. But its credibility depends on whether its members back mediation with the political will, resources and follow-through needed to make agreements last.
