Yemen’s Houthis have seized the country’s entire Red Sea coastline and captured strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, dramatically strengthening their position over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
The Iran-aligned movement captured the strategic port city of Mocha before advancing southwards towards Dhubab and taking Mayyun, also known as Perim Island, which sits inside the Bab al-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti.
The Houthis have also taken control of Zuqar Island in the Red Sea, according to reports, consolidating their control over territory previously held by forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognised government.
Mayyun is particularly significant because the volcanic island divides the Bab al-Mandeb into two shipping channels and lies only a short distance from the Horn of Africa.
The Houthi advance gives the group an unprecedented position overlooking shipping travelling between the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, including vessels heading towards the Suez Canal.
The Bab al-Mandeb is one of the principal gateways connecting Asian and Middle Eastern markets with Europe.
Before the latest Red Sea crisis, approximately 12-15 percent of global trade passed through the Suez Canal, while about eight percent of global liquefied natural gas shipments used the route.
Pressure on global shipping
The latest Houthi gains come after years of disruption to commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Beginning in late 2023, the Houthis launched repeated attacks on vessels which they said were linked to Israel and its allies amid Israel’s war on Gaza.
More than 100 commercial ships were targeted during the campaign, forcing many of the world’s largest shipping companies to divert vessels away from the Red Sea and around southern Africa.
The International Monetary Fund recorded a roughly 50 percent year-on-year decline in trade through the Suez Canal during the opening months of 2024 as vessels were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.
The alternative journey around Africa can add significant distance, fuel consumption and transit time to journeys between Asia and Europe, increasing freight and insurance costs.
Many major shipping operators continued avoiding the Red Sea even during periods when attacks declined, reflecting persistent concerns over maritime security.
The latest Houthi territorial gains have therefore renewed fears that vessels could once again face disruption around the Bab al-Mandeb.
The group has maintained that international shipping which is not connected to its enemies can pass safely, although vessels linked to Saudi Arabia have recently faced threats and attacks amid renewed fighting.
Iran and the two chokepoints
The developments have also increased the strategic importance of the Houthis within the wider regional confrontation involving Iran.
Iran has long maintained close political and military ties with the Yemeni movement, although Tehran and the Houthis insist the group makes its own decisions independently.
The Houthi position at Bab al-Mandeb now sits opposite another of the world’s most strategically important waterways: the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz has historically carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids, making disruption there a major threat to international energy markets.
With tensions surrounding both waterways, the possibility of simultaneous disruption in the Gulf and Red Sea has intensified fears over global oil and shipping supplies.
Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied on its East-West pipeline to move oil towards Red Sea export facilities as an alternative to Hormuz.
However, renewed Houthi attacks and the group’s territorial expansion along Yemen’s western coast have increased pressure on that alternative route as well.
Egypt’s Suez losses
Egypt is particularly exposed to further instability in the Red Sea because the Suez Canal is one of the country’s most important sources of foreign currency.
Houthi attacks beginning in late 2023 triggered a major decline in vessels using the canal as shipping companies shifted traffic towards southern Africa.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s office said Suez Canal revenues fell by more than 60 percent in 2024 compared with the previous year.
The disruption cost Egypt nearly $7 billion in lost canal revenue during the year, according to official figures.
Any renewed large-scale diversion of commercial ships away from Bab al-Mandeb would therefore place further pressure on Egypt’s already strained economy.
Horn of Africa gains strategic importance
The Houthi advance is also changing the security landscape on the African side of the Red Sea.
Djibouti sits directly opposite Yemen and hosts military facilities used by several foreign powers, including the United States and China.
The waters between Yemen and Djibouti are also an important migration route.
IOM data shows that thousands of people regularly travel between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. In August alone, the organisation recorded 1,628 people travelling from Yemen towards Obock in Djibouti.
Neighbouring Eritrea has also gained renewed strategic importance because of its long Red Sea coastline and its position opposite Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory.
The country has historically remained relatively isolated under President Isaias Afwerki, but its location near some of the world’s busiest shipping routes has increasingly given Asmara geopolitical leverage.
With the Houthis now controlling Yemen’s western coastline and strategic territory inside Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea has once again become one of the central fronts in the struggle over maritime trade, energy supplies and regional power.
