With the main Islamist insurgency group Jama’at Nusrat Al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) seemingly intent on expanded military action in the the Central Sahel – Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, an expatriate Malian, Muhammed Dicko, this week described the situation in the region as “getting harder and harder”.
The Sahel has faced escalating conflict since the collapse of state control in northern Mali in 2012. What began as a localised rebellion has evolved into a fragmented and expanding insurgency driven by JNIM, linked to al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), alongside ethnic militias and state-backed self-defence groups.
The conflict is now driven less by a single front and more by a breakdown of governance, where weak state presence in rural and border regions has allowed armed groups to embed themselves, impose control, and compete with state forces for authority, territory, and civilian loyalty.
Armed Islamist groups have expanded in these spaces due to the lack security and governance gaps. They routinely target civilians through sieges, kidnappings, improvised explosive devices, forced taxation, and attacks on essential infrastructure, including schools, health facilities, and water systems. In areas under their control, they impose strict interpretations of Sharia law and restrict access, worsening displacement and food insecurity.
At the same time, counterinsurgency operations have also become part of the cycle of violence, with state and allied forces accused of serious abuses including extrajudicial killings, torture, and indiscriminate attacks. This has deepened mistrust between communities and security forces, and in some areas has contributed to local recruitment into armed groups or reliance on self-defence militias.
The situation has sharply deteriorated, with thousands of deaths recorded in 2025 and violence spreading into new areas. In Burkina Faso, JNIM activity has intensified alongside reports of enforced disappearances and shrinking civic space. In Niger’s Tillabéri region, ISSP remains highly active with repeated attacks and civilian casualties. In Mali, violence has expanded further south, alongside continued abductions, forced taxation, and increasing political repression.
Dicko, Vice President of the Mali Community in South Africa, described a worsening humanitarian and security situation to One News Network (ONN). He said,
“The situation is getting harder and harder,” adding that armed groups are “attacking the innocent people” and disrupting key supply routes across the landlocked Sahel states. He further noted that road blockages and insecurity have severely affected the movement of fuel and essential goods from West African ports into Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Overall, the conflict continues to expand, driven by collapsing governance, fragmented armed actors, and overlapping cycles of insurgency and counterinsurgency that leave civilians trapped at the centre of violence.