Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province has become the centre of one of southern Africa’s most devastating conflicts, where state neglect, political grievances, corruption, economic exclusion, foreign energy interests and armed violence have collided with deadly consequences.
The conflict, which began in 2017, has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, destabilised northern Mozambique and disrupted one of Africa’s largest natural gas developments.
Cabo Delgado is part of Mozambique’s long-marginalised north, a region where many Muslim communities have remained poor despite sitting close to some of the country’s most valuable natural resources.
Many analysts have pointed to the stark inequalities between Mozambique’s impoverished northern regions and the concentration of political and economic power in the south as a major factor behind the crisis. However, Mozambican analyst Borges Nhamirre argues that the conflict cannot be reduced to poverty alone.
“People like this theory of explaining conflict based on material issues because it is very attractive and easier. Just say they’re poor, that’s why they’re fighting. But not only that. We have several issues, also ideology. So religious issues, inequality, ethnicity, all these kind of things generate grievances, which leads people to fight and also helps to mobilise people to fight.”
Cabo Delgado and the spread of violence
Cabo Delgado, home to around 2.3 million people and bordering Tanzania, has witnessed a sharp escalation in violence since 2023.
At least 82 armed incidents were recorded in July 2025 alone, while the conflict has spread southwards into parts of Nampula province, where armed groups reportedly operate through dispersed units across seven districts.
What began as isolated attacks has evolved into a wider insurgency capable of destabilising large sections of northern Mozambique.
The armed group at the centre of the conflict is widely referred to as Islamic State Mozambique and is linked to ISIS. However, the conflict itself is rooted in a much wider set of grievances, including regional exclusion, weak governance, corruption, religious and ethnic tensions, and the anger generated by natural gas projects that have transformed the region without delivering justice for local communities.
Gas wealth and the resource curse
The regional and international stakes rose sharply after the discovery of vast offshore gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin off Cabo Delgado’s coast.
The conflict forced the suspension of an estimated $60 billion liquefied natural gas project led by multinational energy companies including TotalEnergies, ENI and ExxonMobil.
Nhamirre said the gas discoveries intensified frustrations among local communities instead of alleviating poverty.
“The discovery of huge quantities of gas in Cabo Delgado, instead of being a solution, became a problem,” he said.
According to Nhamirre, the Mozambican state shifted much of its economic planning away from sectors such as agriculture and tourism in anticipation of future gas revenues that were repeatedly delayed.
“So the country is struggling because all the economy set up was programmed or was planned, waiting for the gas from Cabo Delgado,” he explained.
He also highlighted how local communities were displaced from ancestral land and fishing areas to make way for extractive projects, while receiving little long-term benefit.
“You need to resettle people. People who have been living there for centuries, and they rely on land for agriculture, they rely on fishing as their livelihoods,” he said. “After two years, that money’s gone. And that person no longer has access to his land for agriculture, no longer has access to the sea for fishing.”
Foreign troops and weak governance
The conflict prompted intervention from regional forces under the Southern African Development Community, including troops from South Africa, while Rwanda deployed an estimated 2,000 soldiers to northern Mozambique.
Nhamirre said the SADC Mission in Mozambique played an important role in halting attacks in parts of Cabo Delgado.
“SAMIM deployment was key, was very important to halt the attacks, to contain the attacks,” he said. “South African National Defence Force were deployed to Macomia, and they were very well strategically placed in that area.”
However, he argued that the regional deployment ended too soon.
“The withdrawal was very premature,” Nhamirre said. “It means that the insurgents regained momentum and started to conduct attacks again.”
But military deployments have not resolved the deeper crisis. Analysts have frequently cited youth unemployment, regional marginalisation, state corruption and illicit trade networks as contributing drivers of the conflict.
Nhamirre described corruption as one of Mozambique’s gravest national crises.
“Mozambique is one of the most corrupt countries in southern Africa, on the continent, and in the world,” he said, referring to annual Transparency International corruption rankings.
He further argued that weak judicial institutions have failed to hold senior political figures accountable despite repeated corruption scandals involving ministers and state officials.
Civilians trapped in the middle
The conflict has generated a severe humanitarian crisis across northern Mozambique.
Since last year, an estimated 600,000 people have been displaced, while many affected areas face shortages of schools, healthcare and clean water. More than 6,000 fatalities linked to political violence have been reported since October 2017.
Natural disasters, including Cyclone Chido in 2024, have deepened the suffering of displaced communities already struggling with food insecurity and collapsing public services.
Ordinary civilians in Cabo Delgado have paid the heaviest price, caught between armed groups, state weakness, foreign military intervention and extractive projects that have failed to deliver meaningful development for local people.
No clear end in sight
Although Mozambique’s post-election street violence subsided earlier this year after talks between President Daniel Chapo and opposition leaders, Nhamirre warned that underlying political tensions remain unresolved.
“So violence has stopped, but conflict did not,” he said, pointing to recent killings of opposition figures in Gaza and Manica provinces allegedly linked to the broader post-electoral crisis.
The Cabo Delgado conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight. Analysts say the insurgency has become a low priority for the new administration, even as armed groups continue using “hearts and minds” tactics, including distributing food and organising communal prayers, to strengthen local support.
Military coordination between Mozambican forces, Rwandan troops and regional SADC contingents has also remained inconsistent, with operational difficulties ranging from language barriers and incompatible communications systems to intelligence leaks that have repeatedly undermined counterinsurgency efforts.
For Mozambique’s Muslim north, the central question remains unresolved: how can a region so rich in natural resources remain so poor, neglected and militarised?
Until the state addresses the political, economic and social grievances driving the crisis, Cabo Delgado is likely to remain a battleground where ordinary Muslims pay the price for failures far beyond their control.
