Mali’s long-running crisis has entered a new phase after a series of coordinated attacks exposed the growing capabilities of armed groups and highlighted the increasingly fragile security landscape across the Sahel.
According to Anwar Mafille, Director of the Ramla Center for Dialogue, the conflict must be viewed within the broader instability affecting the region.
“The Sahel region is currently embroiled in a long-standing conflict involving a number of juntas, as well as rebel groups of different persuasions, the most significant of which is JNIM,” he told One Nation Media (ONM).
The unprecedented assaults, which targeted military and strategic sites across Mali, have been described by analysts as a significant turning point in the insurgency.
The attacks revealed a new level of cooperation between the Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg-led rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), raising concerns that the conflict is becoming more organised, sophisticated and difficult for Mali’s military government to contain.
The latest offensive comes after years of political upheaval in Mali, where successive military coups have reshaped the country’s security alliances.
French forces, once central to counter-insurgency operations, withdrew following a deterioration in relations with the ruling junta. They were replaced by Russian military support, including personnel linked to the Wagner Group and later Africa Corps, as Bamako sought new partners in its fight against armed groups.
Mafille said the insurgency has evolved alongside shifting regional and international alliances.
“Initially, France was involved as the former colonial power supporting the regimes in place, but following regime change in the region, France was sort of expelled and replaced by Russia, with whom the Malian government in particular passed a number of security agreements,” Mafille said.
While Mali’s leaders hoped the new partnership would bolster security, recent events suggest armed groups remain capable of launching coordinated operations across vast distances.
Analysts say the attacks demonstrated improved planning, intelligence-sharing and logistical coordination between groups that have historically pursued different objectives.
For Mafille, JNIM’s core objectives have remained largely unchanged despite the departure of French forces and the arrival of Russian support.
“The main insurgent group, JNIM, has stated that their aim is, number one, to expel the Russians, as previously their aim was to expel the French army. Number two is to take down the regime, and number three is to install Islamic governance in the country.”
The military government now finds itself under mounting pressure. Despite years of military campaigns and foreign assistance, the insurgency has proven resilient, while repeated attacks continue to expose weaknesses in the state’s ability to secure key regions.
“The junta is currently in a difficult situation. It’s been unable to win the war militarily. It’s currently dependent on Russian support, so it’s been unable to win the war politically. It’s also isolated,” Mafille told ONM.
He believes the recent offensive was designed not only to inflict military damage but also to send a political message.
“The insurgents have definitely shown that they were able to display power, that they were able to inflict damage on the regime, and that the regime was in a situation of weakness, dependent on Russian support,” Mafille added.
One of the most significant developments is the apparent cooperation between JNIM and the FLA.
Security analysts say the relationship appears to extend beyond tactical alliances seen in previous rebellions, with indications of greater operational coordination, intelligence-sharing and joint planning.
Mafille said the two groups have sought common ground despite their differing ideological backgrounds.
“JNIM and the FLA have come to an agreement that if they take over the country, or part of the country, then Islamic governance should be applied. But this should be done in a way which is agreeable to the local people. Judges, for example, would be appointed if agreed by both parties and local power brokers.”
As violence intensifies, analysts warn that Mali’s conflict can no longer be viewed solely as a domestic security crisis.
It increasingly reflects a wider struggle over governance, regional influence and foreign intervention that continues to reshape the Sahel, with consequences likely to extend far beyond Mali’s borders.